The Abu Sayyaf Group & Duterte Administration

by: Psychic August

What do you predict regarding the ASG? Will the country eventually attain peace during the current administration?

The Abu Sayyaf Group will not survive the Duterte administration, in the sense that most of its adherents will be wiped out, with the surviving few disappearing into anonymity, and yet some reforming into other smaller terrorist bands, without calling themselves the ASG anymore.

2015 Predictions: Psychic August

by: Psychic August

The Philippine economy as a whole for the next year will hardly improve, mainly due to the Philippine government's lack of a specific and all-encompassing economic plan since it's inception last 2010, besides the frequent trips overseas made by the head of state and some members of his cabinet, soliciting investments from economically developed and prosperous nations.

Even with these so called solicitations,  it still remains to be seen if the majority of those countries, foreign corporations, etc., that declared their pledge in  investing in the Philippines will push through at all. Those that do follow up on their pledges will do so only into the start of the next administration.

So poverty will still continue to be the norm for the majority of the Filipinos in 2015, even if there are occasional developments like there being more jobs available, bringing down the number of unemployed by a few numbers, too few to reflect a real improvement of the Philippine economy.

The trend of lowering the international price for oil will continue next year.  For the Philippines, this will mean lowering the rates of public transportation due to price rollbacks of gasoline begrudgingly made by the local oil fuel companies.  But the rollbacks will only be up to a certain point, and so transportation rates, although lower next year, will not be that much lower than the current ones.

The peace and order situation in the Philippines will improve in 2015.  The PNP's "Operation Lambat Sibat" in cooperation with the DILG will be generally successful in bringing down the crime rate in the country. Thus we will a decrease in violent crime next year. Although successful, this " operation lambat sibat " or another law enforcement program to fight crime must be continued into the next administration if we want to see a significant lowering of the crime rate that will really be experienced at the grass roots level.

Although there will still be some new laws enacted to fight crime, as well as the amendment of some existing laws to improve their effect, it is more of there being a better implementation of existing laws that will help bring down the crime rate next year.

The insurgency problem, especially in the southern Philippines will still be a continuing problem, however. The government will have better success in dealing with the insurgent new people's army, more also because there is currently & will continue into next year, a funding problem experienced by the NPA and it's political arm - the CPP.

But the Abu Sayyaf and other insurgent groups based in Mindanao will still be a growing problem for the Philippine government and military. Bolstered by funding & other kinds of support from international terrorist groups sympathetic to its cause,  such as the Al Qaeda and its offshoot ISIS, the Abu Sayyaf militants will grow in numbers and in the threat it poses to the overall peace and order situation of the country.  Kidnapping sprees conducted by this group will continue. Bombings in public places will still be enacted but most of it will be curbed even before it begins.  Those that do happen will do so mainly in the south.

Even the recently formed Bangsamoro will fail to stop or even curb this threat next year.

Although down played by the Philippine military, the recruitment of young Filipino Muslims to the international ISIS group will continue into 2015.

Reading Date:  December 12, 2014